Polymarket × HK Daily High Temp · Performance Quarterly

The Weather Bot

Issue No. 32
21 May 2026 · 08:24 UTC
Live · Paper
Equity since inception · 32 days+$1,361.14 USD
+136.11%
32 days. 71 trades. 5 improbable YES winners did most of the heavy lifting — and the NO book held the floor while they paid out.
Bankroll$2,361.14
Realised PnL+$1,361.14
Open Trades6
Cap utilised17%

An ordinary climb,
then the lottery hits.

$1,000 → $2,361.14Anchor 2026-04-22 · 18 points
$700$1,600$2,500Apr 22Apr 27May 8May 14May 20“+$278 lottery hit”31°C or higher YES · entry $0.091 · 2026-05-13
— The Strategic Story —

NO carries the bankroll.
YES delivers the upside NO cannot.

Side · NOincome engine
56trades
Heavy, dense, steady.
Hit Rate75.0%
PnL+$177.22
Trades56
Share79% of n
Side · YESlottery upside
15trades
Light, rare, explosive.
Hit Rate33.3%
PnL+$1,183.92
Trades15
Share of PnL87% of PnL

Today's open book

6 positions · 2026-05-21 · $170 at risk
2026-05-2129°CNOEntry$0.67Stake$30Now$1.00+$15.09
2026-05-2130°CNOEntry$0.79Stake$30Now$1.00+$7.96
2026-05-2123°CNOEntry$0.89Stake$30Now$1.00+$3.88
2026-05-2231°C or higherNOEntry$0.60Stake$30Now$0.36-$11.90
2026-05-2230°CNOEntry$0.69Stake$30Now$0.76+$3.07
2026-05-2229°CYESEntry$0.10Stake$20Now$0.10+$0.99

Last eight, in order.

Settled · most recent first
2026-05-1929°CNOEntry$0.72Stake$30Edge12%won+$11.96
2026-05-1928°CNOEntry$0.67Stake$30Edge10%won+$15.11
2026-05-1828°CNOEntry$0.71Stake$30Edge13%won+$12.55
2026-05-1826°CNOEntry$0.73Stake$30Edge12%lost-$30.00
2026-05-1827°CNOEntry$0.70Stake$18Edge8%won+$7.91
2026-05-1725°CYESEntry$0.075Stake$19Edge10%won+$240.35
2026-05-1728°CNOEntry$0.74Stake$30Edge13%won+$10.27
2026-05-1727°CNOEntry$0.68Stake$30Edge12%won+$14.12